Whirlpools in the Persian Gulf

Iran's history was shaped in the shadow of the powers from the east and the west - but it seems that the current period gives Iran an opportunity to shape itself as it plays between the powers

"The appeaser is the one who feeds the crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." – Winston Churchill

A Turbulent History

The Qajar dynasty, founded by Mohammad Khan (1789–1797) from the Koyunlu tribe of the Turkman Qajar clan, ruled Persia—modern-day Iran—after successfully battling Shah Lotf Ali Khan. They expanded control beyond the Alborz Mountains to the Caucasus Mountains and the Caspian Sea, reaching the Russian Empire. In the Caucasus, the Qajar dynasty permanently lost significant territories to Russia during the 19th century, including modern-day eastern Georgia, Dagestan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Foreign advisors became agents in the court and army. Ultimately, the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 divided Qajar Iran into Russian and British spheres of influence and a neutral zone.

The Shadow of Great Powers

Even today, Iran does not shape its policies without the shadow of great powers, whether it’s the Ottoman, Russian, British, or American empires. Both the West and East view Iran as a strategic center due to its location and oil and gas fields, which can influence the economy of both regions. Hence, the United States has so far avoided aggressive military action against Iran.

A Complex International System

Consider this... How did Iran manage to market nearly 300,000 barrels of oil at the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term compared to nearly 3 million barrels a day now? Their plan is to reach 6 million barrels a day, likely with American support and Biden administration's intentional overlooking of sanctions on Iran. The complex international system involving China, Russia, and the United States impacts how Iran, Turkey, Israel, France, or Germany manage their foreign policies, security, and energy sectors.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Americans estimated that Russia intended to resume war against Ukraine in 2021. They were prepared for this scenario. U.S. intelligence correctly predicted Putin's readiness to attack Ukraine again. The Chinese also knew about Putin's war plans by December 2021.

In the winter of 2022, the Olympic Games were held in Beijing, and Chinese President Xi Jinping requested Vladimir Putin to delay the war against Ukraine from December 2021 to February 2022, to which Moscow agreed. Putin attended the opening of the Olympics. The Russians did not want to ruin the Chinese event. The Winter Olympics began in February in Beijing and ended on February 22, 2022. Two days later, on February 24, 2022, Russian military forces launched an attack on Ukraine.

Iran’s Calculated Moves

The Iranians assessed the complex situation, balancing Biden administration's desire to keep negotiations on the nuclear deal open in 2021, rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia, China's need for a stable oil supply due to potential disruptions from Russia, and Biden’s need to ensure low oil prices ahead of the midterm elections in November 2022. They invested significant efforts to develop their energy sector and increase marketed oil barrels globally. Yes... it's complicated...

The Iranians presented themselves to the Biden administration as a possible alternative to ensure stable oil supplies and price stability worldwide, including in the U.S. The trade-off from the U.S. President was to overlook the sanctions. Iran began shipping oil to Europe without any interruption.

The Biden Administration’s Strategy

After it became clear throughout 2022 into 2023 that oil prices had stabilized, the Biden administration continued to ignore the sanctions imposed on Iran, allowing it to accelerate oil production for global markets, particularly Europe. 2023 did not pass quietly but with great turmoil, starting on October 7, 2023, shaking the global market with fears of expanding the war between Israel and Hamas into a regional war involving Hezbollah from Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

Despite Iran and its proxies' growing involvement in the Gaza conflict and attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq, closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis, and rocket and missile launches from Lebanon by Hezbollah towards Israel, these actions did not lead the Biden administration to stop ignoring sanctions on Iran. Instead, because the energy market was expected to experience price hikes—a very bad scenario for a president entering an election year. Rising energy prices globally could have severely impacted the European bloc, potentially encouraging higher oil imports from Russia since the resumption of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, disrupting the American plan for Europe.

The Israeli Response

During the war against Hamas, Israel took the opportunity to act against Iranian terrorists in Syria. On one occasion, Israel carried out the most significant assassination since Qasem Soleimani: Hassan Mahdavi, a commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force. Iran announced to the world that they would retaliate. To show Iran’s allies they were serious, they sent drones and missiles towards Israel in a way that posed minimal risk to people in Israel—primarily towards military bases in the Negev and Golan Heights, with slow-moving drones from Iran. They instructed Hezbollah not to interfere. Iran documented almost every area and part launched from Iran to Israel. This was essentially a show orchestrated by the Pentagon between the U.S. and Iran and between the U.S. and Israel. They presented a war to avoid war. The message to the world was that Iran could respond to an attack on it but did not want war. If they wanted war, they would have bombarded Israel with thousands of rockets and missiles from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, with drones launched from areas close to the border, not from Iran.

Iran’s Strategic Restraint

Why does Iran not want war? Because it benefits more from Israel being in a war of attrition, with its military forces focused on fighting in various fronts while Iran exports more oil to global markets, develops its arms industry in cooperation with Russia, and strengthens its regional standing.

Iran has significant advantages over Israel, both in terms of the energy sector, its connections with countries worldwide, its vital role for China, Russia, and the U.S. due to its influence on Europe and the Persian Gulf states, and its vast size compared to small Israel. Iran has succeeded in building a ring of fire around Israel, and its proxies can wear down and significantly harm Israel, possibly more than Israel can harm Iran. Israel lacks offensive weapons capable of significantly damaging nuclear facilities deep underground and lacks aerial refueling and aircraft capable of repeatedly carrying large loads of munitions over long distances from air force bases. Despite the extensive relationship between Israel and the U.S., the latter has not provided Israel with offensive means that can be used against Iran.

Netanyahu’s Calculated Decision

Iran's attack on Israel gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to improve his position vis-à-vis the U.S. regarding managing the war in Gaza. The possibility that Israel would attack Iran in return was present, and the alternative offered by the Americans was to allow Israel to enter Rafah without high media criticism. Netanyahu preferred to proceed to Rafah and, by avoiding an attack on Iran, bought American silence regarding Rafah. In early March, the Americans claimed there would be no Israeli action in Rafah. By the end of May, White House spokesman John Kirby, referring to the attack in Rafah, said, "A 17-kilogram bomb is not a big bomb, if they really used those, it indicates an effort to be precise and focused."

Iran’s Oil Ambitions

These days, Iran plans to produce about 6 million barrels of oil per day and market them worldwide. The détente with Saudi Arabia yields far more fruits for them than a military confrontation, providing Europe with an alternative oil supply compared to Arab oil-producing countries. One more thing... According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of May 11, 2024, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile stands at 6,201.3 kilograms (13,671.5 pounds). This represents a significant increase of 675.8 kilograms (1,489.8 pounds) since the previous IAEA report in February 2024. Specifically, Iran's stock of up to 60% enriched uranium, a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, has reached 142.1 kilograms (313.2 pounds), an increase of 20.6 kilograms (45.4 pounds) since the February report. The IAEA estimates that about 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium is roughly the quantity needed for one nuclear weapon, if further enriched to 90%. Therefore, Iran's current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is more than three times the amount needed for a single nuclear weapon.

The Perfect Storm

The perfect storm approaching Israel and the surrounding countries finds Iran emerging stronger from the crises it faced, while Israel weakens due to internal erosion of its institutions, division among its societal groups, economic difficulties, alienation from countries around the world, a government and Knesset that do not enjoy much public trust, a war that exhausts its military strength, especially the ground forces. Additionally, an American administration trying to appease challenging countries, mainly due to America's economic and military erosion in endless Middle Eastern wars. As they show determination, Washington steps back, trying to avoid various confrontations. For America, the focus is on the Pacific region, while for Israel and Europe, the focus is on the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean. Iran shapes itself against Western countries that are no longer resolute... and in the polarized world, Iran discovers its newfound strength.

The Future of Iran and the Region

The change of government in Iran and the fall of the Ayatollahs' rule are necessary for a better future, for the people of the Middle East and for the whole world. A regional power like Iran with nuclear weapons will cast a huge shadow over the State of Israel and extinguish the light of Western optimism. Since the American foreign policy makers have united Russia and China into one front, all that is left for Iran is to play in this polar triangle until the regime has nuclear power. The turmoil in the Persian Gulf may plunge the world into the abyss of war.

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